Maximizing the odds of success through “sensitivity x data science”──A look behind the scenes at Marugame Seimen’s unstoppable progress [Marketing Agenda 2025 Event Report]

Marugame Seimen continues to perform well, recording record-high sales and operating profits in the fiscal year ending March 2025. This growth is supported by maximizing the success rate through the fusion of "sensibility x data science" in marketing. The company's symbolic "emotion-driven marketing" is rooted in sensibility, but continues to evolve through data.

On May 2025, 5, at Marketing Agenda 22, Japan's top marketing conference, held in Okinawa, Katsuaki Nagumo, Executive Officer and CMO of Toridoll Holdings and Director and Head of Marketing at Marugame Seimen, and Hirao, CEO of XICA, took the stage for the second consecutive year to talk about the latest examples of data-driven marketing that the two companies are working on at Marugame Seimen.

In the first half of the session, the evolution and transition of efforts in the practice of "emotion-driven marketing" to grow business was explained. In the second half, based on the management policy that "the happiness of each and every worker is the source of growth," data science was used to visualize and optimize this structure, and the cutting-edge efforts to sublimate it into a reproducible growth model were explored.

This report will introduce the contents of the sessions held on the day.

Last year's session contentsThis reportPlease refer to

The exchange of "sensitivity and data science" is important

The theme of this conference was "Will AI create markets?" In response to this question, Hirao stated clearly that "AI alone cannot create markets." He emphasized that no matter how much technology evolves, it is ultimately the power of "people" that moves markets.

He said that in the field of marketing in particular, it is essential to have clear objectives and hypotheses and to use AI in the right way, and that to achieve this, "people" who can use AI well will become even more important. He also said that the fusion of "sensitivity" and "data science," which was the theme of this session, will be the key to thinking and acting in market creation in the AI ​​era.

As an example of a pioneering approach that embodies this, Mr. Nagumo explained the behind-the-scenes story of Marugame Seimen's data-driven marketing efforts.

Marugame Seimen's "emotion-driven marketing"

Marugame Seimen's marketing strategy is based on three keywords: "Creating excitement," "Achieving duality," and "Achieving both sensibility and data science."

"Impressive creation" is the idea that excitement is the source of value that creates customers. "How can we create excitement that cannot be created anywhere else?" is the top priority in all decision-making, and is implemented throughout the company not only in marketing but also in the operation of stores and back offices. The key to creating that excitement is to think outside the box andDualism" It is a strategy to pursue an irrational path that other companies will not choose, and to create a structural advantage at the end of it. And the important idea to increase the repeatability of the strategy is the theme of this article, "Balancing sensibility and data science" Nagumo said,If you can use your intuition and data science to find winning patterns, correctly identify key drivers, and keep them under control, you can continue to win.He said.

Furthermore, Mr. Nagumo also explained how to design emotions. He said that the most important thing is to accurately understand the structure of your company's business and the structure of the consumer's "brain" and "heart." He then explained that keeping these in an advantageous and controllable state for your company is extremely important in building a "structural advantage."

The key to Marugame Seimen's inspiring design is "The excitement of setting things up yourself"When"Emotions born from connections" The former, "the excitement of taking the initiative," can be further divided into two. One is an approach to the left brain/rationality, which creates a perception that makes the consumer choose us. The other is an approach to the right brain/intuition, which creates the urge and excitement to be chosen. And by adding "people power" to these, even more excitement is born from the "connections," creating a structural advantage that cannot be imitated by other companies. Marugame Seimen incorporates these two types of excitement not only in its measures, but in all aspects of the brand experience, including product development and the design of its store spaces.

The evolution and transition of “emotion-driven marketing”

Hirao once again explained the theme of this event, "sensitivity x data science." Hirao said, "sensitivity and data science are not separate things, they are inseparable." He said that it is important to use both of them interchangeably, rather than using each part separately.

As shown in the diagram below, it is precisely because of human hypotheses cultivated through intuition that data science is able to verify things beyond the limits of human ability, and this is where data science truly shines. Furthermore, if this process is followed, the output obtained from data science will be very meaningful, which will further refine intuition and increase the accuracy of hypotheses. He explained that being able to turn this cycle around will be the worldview we should strive for.

And the business strategy of Marugame Seimen, which is driven by emotion, to create excitement, is shown in the diagram below.EX (Employee Intrinsic Motivation)When this number increases, not only does it decrease turnover rates,CX (Customer Experience)とSocial Good (Creating excitement for the local community)And as these efforts bear fruit,BRAND (A unique brand that creates excitement)This structure is designed to build trust and lead to prosperity.

In line with this structure, Marugame Seimen is using data science behind each quadrant to build a system that can verify each one.

The first thing we did was toMMM (Marketing Mix Modeling)This analysis links the measures and their results. It started with a quantitative analysis of how each measure contributes to sales and an understanding of the overall return on investment. Next, to address issues that cannot be explained by quantity (the effect of measures) alone,CMM (Consumer Mix Modeling)They are currently strengthening their strategy in terms of both quantity and quality, such as by identifying key drivers that lead to results from a qualitative (consumer awareness) perspective. They are also deploying data science in the areas of CX and Social Good. To strengthen their understanding of customers, they are identifying the causes of impulse store visits and customer churn, and conducting pre-release buzz analysis to maximize the initial results of fair products.

These analyses have increased the resolution of their strategies, further sharpening their sensibilities, and they are now working on elucidating the overlapping areas of CX and EX based on a solid hypothesis. They are working to visualize the structure in which employee intrinsic motivation leads to maximizing the moving experience of customers, which contributes to improved business results, and to systematize it as a reproducible model.

The session provided further details on the latest examples of these initiatives, including the "Strategic Management Model," which optimizes the accuracy of strategies in terms of both quantity and quality, and "Verification of the Happiness Emotion Model" and "Visualization of Store Performance," which visualize and manage the structure of EX, CX, and results.

Optimizing strategies through a quality x quantity approach

In the "Strategic Management Model", the qualitative approach is as follows:KSF (Key Success Factor) analysis using CMMKSF analysis quantitatively clarifies what attitude indicators strongly contribute to the performance indicator (in the case of Marugame Seimen, "number of visits") in acquiring new customers and encouraging repeat customers to return, and identifies "key drivers." It also identifies important evaluation items that boost those key drivers.

What this analysis made clear was that the important factor in determining the number of visits by new customers is "intention to visit," and that what drives this "intention to visit" is the perception that "the udon is delicious." It also revealed that the POD (point of differentiation) of "good quality" influences the acquisition of the perception that "the udon is delicious," and that among the elements that make up "good quality," the key factors are "can eat with peace of mind" and "has something that sets it apart from other restaurants."

Marugame Seimen's promotion for 2024 focused on these key drivers in its communications. The branding of "noodle craftsman x noodle factory" conveyed the important image of "safe to eat," while the product promotion of "Marugame Udonut," the biggest hit product in Marugame Seimen's history, emphasized "a new experience x excitement," conveying the important image of "a quality that sets us apart from other stores."

In addition, theQuantitative analysis of key drivers using MMMAs in the past, it does not only visualize the effects of measures, but also visualizes the extent to which each measure, such as branding, product promotion, and store experience, has an impact on key drivers. This analysis quantifies not only short-term results, but also the contribution to long-term brand value. As a result,Design optimal KPIs and optimize budget allocation based on the cost-effectiveness of each measureare doing.

"This is not something that was born out of pure intuition, nor was it something that was derived solely from data science. It is a strategy that was built as a result of repeated verification and deepening that went back and forth between intuition and data.(Hirao)' 

Aiming for sustainable business growth through "inspirational management"

Marugame Seimen's management is centered on "emotion." The data science used to advance this approach has progressed to the next stage.

"What we're trying to do is,Linking employee intrinsic motivation to prosperity"That is what it means," says Nagumo.By elucidating the mechanism by which improving intrinsic motivation such as employee job satisfaction leads to exciting experiences for customers, which in turn leads to success, we can improve business performance in a highly reproducible manner.This initiative is not limited to the marketing field. It has expanded to include human resources and store areas, and has developed into a project that uses data science to uncover mechanisms that lead to prosperity for all employees of the group, including part-time workers.

The overall picture of the initiative is shown in the diagram below.

First, we started a project last year called "Emotional scoreThis is a real-time customer experience index that is measured daily at 860 stores nationwide. The next step is to develop a "Happiness ScoreIn addition, a system has been created to score all major store KPIs that are directly linked to measures and store profits, and to visualize and manage the data in a centralized manner.

Our goal is for all stores to be able to understand the condition of their own stores and take action accordingly.Delegating authority while allowing employees on the ground to think for themselves, take action, and make the results known in a timely mannerMr. Nagumo explained that this is important.Creating repeatable, prosperous business resultsIt is possible to do so.

"The situation of each store is different. It is important to clearly visualize the situation, understand our strengths and weaknesses, and take action while thinking for ourselves.(Mr. Nagumo)'

Hirao said that the key point of this initiative to visualize the status of all stores is that it is "centered on the field." The UI/UX design of the dashboard also emphasizes that it can be used independently by field staff, not from the perspective of managers, and it was designed as a tool that gives each store "hints" to think and act on their own.

"The greatest reward for a worker on the front lines is when they see customers happy with an initiative they came up with and see actual numerical results. This reward is what motivates them to take the next action, and by providing feedback on the results as quickly as possible, it becomes possible to quickly turn the improvement cycle around.(Mr. Nagumo)'

Furthermore, in relation to the session theme of "sensitivity x data science," Nagumo said, "Marugame Seimen employees, who are the ones who 'create excitement,' also need to hone their sensitivities." While data science can increase the success rate of measures, improving the sensitivities of each employee is essential to creating new surprises and excitement, and he explained that they aim to create a system of visualization and scoring that can approach this.

Where does your insatiable curiosity come from?

Looking back on the projects that Marugame Seimen and XICA have been working on for several years, Hirao asked this question, to which Nagumo replied without hesitation, "Because I think it's necessary to win." He continued, "Growing the business also leads to the happiness of our coworkers. I'm always thinking about what we can do to win."

Concluding the session, Hirao said:

"Sensibility and data science are inseparable, and in many cases, sensibility is the driving force. If we can keep this cycle going,Not only will the accuracy of your strategy improve, but your judgment will also improve as your sensitivity improves, accelerating the speed of your decision-making.As a result,Build a winning strategyThis will be possible.”

In response to this, Nagumo said,Can this cycle be continued?"But I think that's going to make a big difference going forward."

Marugame Seimen's success is backed by the constant research and practice it has accumulated by combining "sensitivity and data science." Now that technological evolution is accelerating, the ability to combine human sensitivities with data is an important perspective that many companies should learn from.