Where data and intuition intersect in marketing strategy: How to improve the quality and speed of your decisions

Marketing used to be a world where decisions were made primarily based on creative intuition. However, with the development of digital technology, huge amounts of data have come to be available, and patterns and trends that emerge from data are now an essential source of information for corporate decision-making. However, the reality is not a simple dichotomy. The question of how to harmonize data and intuition without leaning too much to one side is important in marketing these days.

In this article, we will explore how a more in-depth marketing strategy can be developed by combining the numbers shown by the data with a marketer's own experience and intuition.

Marketing Transition: Shifting from Intuition to Data

There was a time when marketers and creators' experience and intuition took precedence over numbers in making decisions. For example, mass advertising, particularly television commercials and newspaper ads, is said to be heavily influenced by how much it resonates with consumers, but because this "intuition" is difficult to measure quantitatively and objectively, the quality of a product was judged based on the experience and intuition of marketers and creators.

Meanwhile, with the spread of the Internet, it has become possible to collect a wide variety of data, such as the number of website visits, social media engagement rates, consumer behavior and purchasing history, etc. Furthermore, as an environment has been created where analysis tools can be used to provide feedback on results in real time, strategies that were previously based on intuition and experience are now gradually changing into approaches based on numbers.

According to a study that investigated the accuracy of marketers' intuition in predicting advertising effectiveness,When approximately 700 marketers were asked to intuitively predict the effectiveness of advertising, the overall prediction accuracy was only 51%, which was roughly the same as chance, demonstrating the limitations of making judgments based on intuition alone.

However, numbers do not tell the whole story. No matter how accurate the analytical tools, they often cannot handle sudden changes in the market or unexpected trends. Also, if there is bias or error in the measurement method, the overall trend cannot be accurately reflected. In other words, even if the numbers seem to show objective facts, marketers must always be aware that unpredictable fluctuations and limitations of measurement lurk behind them.

The role and potential of intuition

While data is important, it is also important not to overlook the "humanity" behind the numbers and to complement the information through the filter of "intuition." A marketer's intuition is cultivated from years of experience, on-site practice, and consumer sensibilities. Many successful campaigns in the market involve "inspiration" that cannot be explained by data alone. For example, even if a certain measure is deemed optimal based on the data, you may feel that "something is not right" in the field. That intuition can lead to small adjustments and bold decisions that produce great results.

Of course, relying solely on intuition is risky, but the ability to read the market atmosphere and subtle changes in consumers that data cannot capture is a valuable asset for a marketer. Because they have developed the ability to intuitively grasp market trends, customer psychology, and the uniqueness of a brand through experience and practice, this ability is particularly useful in situations that require flexible responses, such as entering new markets or planning innovative campaigns.

Intuition is also the source of creative ideas. Brand differentiation and measures that resonate with customer emotions cannot be created with data alone. Product concepts and campaign ideas that differentiate from competitors can also only be born from on-site sensations and experience.

A practical process that combines data and intuition

As such, because both data and intuition have their pros and cons, it is extremely important in an actual marketing strategy to use them in a complementary manner to create synergy. For example, you can first use data analysis to understand the general trends in the market and the effectiveness of your measures, but if the trends shown in the numbers alone do not fully capture the overall picture, you can use your intuition and experience to supplement the parts that are difficult to see in the numbers. This allows you to grasp signs of trends and consumer psychology that are easily overlooked with numbers alone, leading to more accurate decision-making.

From here on, we will focus on the process of how to combine data and intuition and put them into practice. Rather than simply using the two at the same time, it is necessary to maximize the synergy between them so that they complement each other.

A decision-making framework that uses both data and intuition

Here's a practical framework to help you choose the best approach for your marketing strategy: When should you prioritize data and when should you prioritize intuition?

<Five main criteria for making decisions>

• Time constraints:How much time is left to make a decision?
• Magnitude of Effect:Will the decision have significant consequences?
• Accumulation of knowledge:Have there been any similar cases or experiences in the past?
• Data availability:Is reliable data available?

<Three approaches based on the framework>

1. A data-driven approach

• Applicable scene:
  • When there is sufficient time to make a decision
  • When decisions require high certainty, such as when the impact is large or irreversible
  • If there are no similar cases or experiences in the past

• How to practice:
  • Predictive analytics-Machine learning modelUtilize
  • Not by feeling,Data-driven strategy planningdo

2. An approach that emphasizes intuition and experience

• Applicable scene:
  • When there is no time for analysis and immediate decisions and actions are required
  • When you don't have data on hand, or the market environment is changing rapidly and past data is not useful

• How to practice:
  • Utilizing knowledge gained from successful experiences
  • Intuitively reading subtle changes in market conditions and consumers that data cannot capture

3. Balanced/hybrid approach

• Applicable scene:
  • When there is time available for analysis to a certain extent, but speed is also required
  • When making complex decisions involving multiple factors
  • You have reliable data, but need to supplement it with experience and industry knowledge

• How to practice:
  • Combining quantitative information (market and sales analysis) with qualitative information (user feedback and internal knowledge)
  • Take experimental actions using "small data + intuition" and verify the results with data
  • Prioritize data for important decisions, but use experience and intuition to fill in areas of uncertainty

Important points to note when implementing each approach

Clarify the purpose and policy

Regardless of which approach you adopt, it is important to set specific goals, such as increasing sales, strengthening the brand, and improving customer loyalty, and to set the associated KPIs. At the same time, you should consider how to incorporate intuitive elements, such as market trends and customer changes sensed by the field and management, into your strategy.

Collect and integrate data from multiple angles while assessing data quality

It is important to centrally manage this diverse information, including customer information, sales data, web analytics data, and reactions on social media. However, please be aware that if the data is unreliable, data-driven decision-making increases risk.

Allow yourself to fail and test your hypotheses on a small scale

In either approach, it is essential to repeat hypothesis testing and go through the PDCA cycle, which supports decision-making that effectively combines data and intuition. By starting with small-scale testing and repeatedly making adjustments, you can reduce the hurdle of testing and repeat the cycle more frequently.

Considering the "leadership balance" of decision-making

By balancing the "data-oriented" and "intuitive" sides within a team, more accurate decision-making is possible. Different opinions stimulate discussion and increase the possibility of practical decisions being made from new perspectives. However, which side should be emphasized should be adjusted according to the situation, referring to the framework above.

Case Study: Marugame Seimen's Optimal Solution of "Sensibility x Data Science"

To create a reason for being chosen

Marugame Seimen has a unique fusion of the "left brain (rational) approach" and the "right brain (intuitive) approach."

First, to approach the left brain and reason, they create a "perception" that will be chosen, and then to approach the right brain and intuition, they create an "impulse" that will be chosen. Because impulse is a characteristic of eating out, they are conscious of how to create impulse in their marketing.

At Marugame Seimen, we combine intuition and data science to develop strategies that unravel this structure and increase our win rate and reproducibility.

Strategy based on "sensitivity x data science"

As an example, we will introduce a case where data science was used to clarify the structure that creates the perception that is chosen, which is an "approach to the left brain (rationality)." The approach is to elucidate the key drivers that lead to business results (drivers that maximize business results by boosting them) through the analysis of awareness data.

The analysis showed that, for example, in the case of new customers, what is important in relation to frequency of use is not the intention to recommend or pure recall, but the intention to use. Furthermore, what drives the intention to use is the perception that "the udon is delicious," and what constitutes this "delicious udon" is the image of "good quality." Furthermore, digging deeper into each element, it was found that the two key factors were "can eat with peace of mind" and "has something good that sets it apart from other restaurants," and further that "can empathize" and "have particular preferences" are causal factors linked to these.*

By verifying hypotheses and guidelines based on "intuition" through "data science" and visualizing and structuring the connection with results, it has become possible to devise strategies that produce highly reproducible results.

*This is a case study from fiscal year 2023, and the analysis results are not the latest.

Looking back at Marugame Seimen's promotions in 2023, while developing the branding of "Noodle Craftsman x Noodle Factory" to express their commitment and sincerity, they also launched the mega-hit "Shake Udon" in parallel, emphasizing new experiences and excitement. These were success stories that achieved reproducible results, capturing the images of "safe to eat" and "has something different from other stores," which were revealed in the analysis as important elements linked to the characteristic of "good quality." This two-pronged promotion was also put into practice in 2024 with "Marugame Udonut," which became the biggest hit product in the history of Marugame Seimen.

Key points to learn from the case studies

It is important to "use data to reinforce sensibility" and "use data to refine sensibility" rather than separating sensibility from data or leaning too much towards one or the other. It is important to first have a hypothesis based on sensibility, and by refining the content backed up by data with Marugame Seimen's unique sensibility and story, it becomes possible to differentiate ourselves more firmly.

The above example is only a part of Marugame Seimen's marketing strategy, but the company puts this combination of "sensibility x data science" into practice in all aspects, from strategy to tactics.

▼For more details on Marugame Seimen, please see below.

• The secrets behind the marketing strategies that will increase your chances of success
• Behind the success of "Marugame Udonatsu" -- Hypothesis thinking that combines intuition and data

In conclusion

Throughout this article, we have looked at marketing strategies that combine data and intuition. Advances in digital technology are making more and more data available for marketing decision-making. However, how to interpret that data and use it in strategies is left to the marketer's experience and intuition. The key is not to rely too much on numbers, but to understand the market trends and consumer psychology behind them. By properly combining data and intuition, companies can make optimal use of limited resources and achieve sustainable growth.

For over 10 years, XICA has supported over 280 companies in making decisions to optimize their marketing through analysis that combines data and marketer knowledge. If you are struggling with how to utilize data or want to gain a deeper understanding of market trends that cannot be captured by numbers alone, please feel free to contact us.of the Directions & ParkingWe will recommend the best approach for your situation and help you make strategic decisions based on data and intuition.

XICA Co., Ltd. Marketing Team